Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without virus containment measures

Japan could see some 850,000 people seriously sickened by the coronavirus and almost half of them dying if no social distancing or other measures are followed, according to an expert estimate released Wednesday.

Japan has the world's oldest population, which is a particular concern since COVID-19 can be especially serious and fatal in the elderly. And there are concerns that Japan's government has done too little and acted too late to stave off high numbers of seriously ill patients.

The current state of emergency is voluntary and doesn't compensate workers who've lost earnings. Japanese companies also have been slow to adapt to remote work, meaning people still have continued to use public transit to commute to large offices in the densely populated capital region.

Already, patients are being moved to more hospitals and even hotels in Tokyo as infections surge in the capital, where medical experts warn the health care system is on the brink of collapse.

The projection by the government-commissioned team is a worst-case scenario, said Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, an expert on cluster analysis. He urged people to cooperate in the social distancing effort. "We can stop the transmission if all of us change our activity and significantly reduce interactions."

The report projected 420,000 potential deaths because the seriously ill would require respiratory care or treatment in intensive care units and ventilators would run out if no preventive measures were taken, according to the report provided by the health ministry.

"If we are unprepared and hit by the pandemic, we will run out of respirators," Nishitani told reporters.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures on April 7 and asked people to curb their public activities. It was expanded nationwide Saturday. Nishiura expressed concerns that slowing infections would take longer if social distancing was limited.

An estimated 652,000 people 65 or older will become seriously ill under a hypothesis of one patient infecting 2.5 others, Nishiura said. An estimated 201,000 people from ages 15 to 64 would become seriously ill without social distancing and other preventive measures.

Japan currently has more than 8,800 cases of infection and 231 deaths, including about 700 positive cases from a cruise ship that was quarantined at a port near Tokyo earlier this year.

The health ministry reported 457 new cases on Wednesday. Tokyo has about a quarter of Japan's total cases and many of the sick patients are hospitalized. Officials are under pressure to expand space for more patients, while transferring those with no or slight symptoms to hotels to make room for others in serious condition.

So far, 105 patients who are slightly ill have been moved into a hotel, and Tokyo plans to secure up to 3,500 single rooms by June.